Bitcoin (BTC) could surge to $100,000 or bottom out at $xxx,000 by Christmas — but one of its all-time-known analysts is betting on the moon.

In a Twitter update on Th, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-menses family of BTC price models, cast fresh doubt on a Bitcoin behave move.

PlanB focuses on "key" remaining months

With BTC/USD trading at $47,000 this week, PlanB has a lot to be confident about.

His recent prediction of a minimum monthly close for August exactly matches current prices — and if the remaining four are merely as accurate, Bitcoin could end 2022 at $135,000.

Stock-to-period's outset incarnation demands an average BTC toll of $100,000 this halving bike, but May's about-plough gave its time-tested precision a run for its money.

PlanB has notwithstanding stuck by it, arguing that it has not all the same been invalidated and that there are no proven better alternatives.

1 such alternative model, which now appears unlikely to come truthful, is the logarithmic "diminishing returns" chart originally produced by Bitcointalk forum user Trololo in 2022.

An adjusted version calculates but $30,000 for BTC/USD at the end of this yr, something that PlanB believes is less likely than stock-to-menstruum's $100,000.

"Next months will be central," he added in comments on an accompanying chart contrasting the 2 models.

BTC/USD cost model comparison nautical chart. Source: PlanB/Twitter

When double superlative?

As Cointelegraph reported, short-term BTC price analysis is erring on the cautious side this week.

Related: More like 'stupor-to-menstruum' — BTC toll hits balderdash trigger as mystery buyers scoop upward supply

As $50,000 remains out of reach as support, opinions are differing over the potential impact of the U.s. Federal Reserve'south annual Jackson Hole meridian, which is shortly to get underway.

Despite rallying sixty% versus contempo lows of $29,000, Bitcoin has yet to challenge terminal resistance to cement $50,000, let alone best highs of $64,500 from April.

Zooming out, optimism remains the name of the game, with data hinting at a fresh bullish surge to come up earlier the year is out. This would copy other mail service-halving bull market place years, notably 2022'southward double top.